Do tax cuts promote growth? Part MCXIV

   0   0 Blog, Corporate Tax, Reports, Size of the Problem

The world’s economists have been arguing over this question for decades. Which is odd, because the evidence is rather clear on this point. Corporate tax cuts, or overall tax cuts (or hikes) just seem to have a neutral effect on economic growth.

Which is quite unsurprising, given that (as we never tire of reminding people) taxes are not a cost to an economy, but a transfer within it. Why should an internal transfer necessarily change overall growth. It might, but there’s no obvious reason at the outset why it should. But whole swathes of the learned economics profession start out with this ‘fact’, and then create studies to prove it. The evidence-tickling out there is a sight to behold.

Let’s start with a little graph we just made, which updates earlier work by others. This takes the prosperous western democracies, above a certain income level (so that we’re not comparing apples with oranges), and compares their per capita GDP growth with their absolute levels of tax in GDP. Here it is.

That trend line is, for all intents and purposes, as flat as a pancake. Ireland is an outlier, as is Luxembourg – but these are small tax havens with their own special dynamics so we should probably have excluded them. Anyway, the flatness of this graph is quite striking: despite truly massive differences in tax revenues per capita from below 30 percent to nearly 55 percent, they’ve nearly all grown at roughly the same speed.

This isn’t definitive proof of anything, but it’s a bulwark against the tax-cutters’ arguments. Perhaps an even bigger bulwark – though still far from definitive proof – is that economic growth during the ‘golden age of capitalism’ quarter century after the Second World War, a very high-tax era, was much higher around the world than in the tax-cutting era that followed. For example in the 1950s top marginal tax rates in the U.S. were 90 percent and real per capita GDP increased annually by 2.4%; in the 2000s that tax rate had fallen to 35 percent and real GDP per capita was less than one percent.

But there is plenty more. Not least our two recent blogs on the importance of the corporate income tax, Part 1 and Part 2 which provide a whole slew of insurmountable factors that simply have to be taken into account in any study of the effects of corporate tax-cutting – and which conveniently aren’t considered in any of those studies that purport to show that tax-cutting is the golden elixir of growth.

Now take this latest article from Citizens for Tax Justice in the U.S., veterans of this scene. (We have just quoted them on a rebuttal they did to an appalling campaign in the New York Times claiming — on the basis of a huge and unworldly mess of an economic model — that it’s a great idea to abolish the corporate income tax.) CTJ point to new reports from the nonpartisan U.S. Congressional Research Service (CRS), which “summarizes the evidence on the relationship between tax rates and economic growth” and finds “little relationship with either top marginal rates or average marginal rates on labor income.” It also finds that work effort and savings are “relatively insensitive to tax rates.”

Some of the reports they cite aren’t online, though this one is. CTJ pokes fun at of some of the tax-cutters’ ridiculous and unworldly models and notes:

“While many advocates of tax cuts claim that a high top marginal personal income tax rate hinders investment by the wealthy, the report finds that “periods of lower taxes are not associated with higher rates of economic growth or increases in investment.”

So how much did the Bush tax cuts help? They cite CRS:

“The models with responses most consistent with empirical evidence suggest a revenue feedback effect of about 1% for the 2001-2004 Bush tax cuts,” meaning the effects that the tax cuts had on the economy and on behavior of taxpayers offset just 1 percent of their total cost. And much of this effect may have taken the form of taxpayers changing how many deductions they take, and other tax planning changes, rather than actual economic growth.

The reports debunk (yet again) the laughable Laffer curve (pictured, at top), and also refutes the ill-advised ‘incidence’ argument which is wielded by the shriller tax-cut shills as in their campaign to abolish the corporate income tax. (Or, as one blogger summarises: “CRS teaches the American Enterprise Institute how to do panel regressions”.)

CTJ also makes another important point about bamboozlement:

These studies are often mind-numbingly complicated and it is rare that policymakers or their aides have the time and ability to go through these studies to understand whether or not they actually make sense. Thankfully, the Congressional Research Service has done that job for everyone.

In fact, there’s so much in the short CTJ article worth reading, that we would urge you simply to go there.


Related Posts

UN must defend target to curtail multinational companies’ tax abuse

Photo by Luca Santori, Creative Commons LicenseThe Tax Justice Network, The Independent Commission for the Reform of International Corporate Taxation, and the Global Alliance for Tax Justice call on the UN Secretary General to make sure the commitment to action on tax abuses by multinational companies remains part of the new UN Sustainable Development Goals.

READ MORE →

The BVI: Responsible for worldwide tax losses of $37.5 billion a year

BVI report blogAn extraordinary report by consultants Capital Economics, for BVI Finance, claims that the British Virgin Islands are responsible for $1.5 trillion of assets invested around the world, and that these result in 2.2 million jobs and $15 billion in tax revenue. A better approximation would be that the BVI imposes global tax losses of $37.5 […]

READ MORE →

Event: Making Tax Work for Women in the UK and Globally

Invitation_ Tax and Gender eventOn Wednesday 28th June 2017 at 16.30 our very own Liz Nelson will be speaking at an event in London that aims to bring together gender and tax justice advocates to highlight the need for coherent and gender-responsive fiscal policies to safeguard the rights of women and girls both in the UK and globally. The […]

READ MORE →

Historic event on women, human rights and tax justice in Bogota

BogotaLast week civil society organisations, researchers, labour union activists and policy makers met in Bogota, Colombia to explore how tax justice issues can ensure governments, multinational corporations and others meet their obligations to women in order to secure their full range of human rights. The Women’s Rights and Tax Justice conference opened with a conversation […]

READ MORE →

The Offshore Wrapper: the Panama Papers, one year on

Photos from the Protest outside PwC 1 Embankment Place, part of the Global week of action for tax justiceWelcome to the Offshore Wrapper – your weekly update from TJN.  Happy Paniversary! This week it’s been one year since the Panama Papers were leaked, and a number of organisations around the world have been marking the occasion though the global week of action for tax justice. In London, activists from the TJN and the […]

READ MORE →

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Back to Top